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People and Opinions
2004 healthcare trends and forecasts
by Bob Zollars
Late
last year, we found out that more than 44 million Americans, or about
15 percent of the population, are living without health insurance. We
also learned that the number continues to rise at the fastest pace in
a decade. We learned that Americans annually invest $1.1 trillion or
13 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the
healthcare sector and this is expected to grow to more than $2
trillion by 2007. As we head into 2004, there are plenty of challenges
in store, and healthcare will once again be top of mind as we face an
election year. From where I sit, here’s a look at what to expect in
the coming 12 months:
Healthcare cost pressures will only get worse,
forcing providers to look for creative ways to save money and in many
cases, survive
Never before have hospital executives faced such
tremendous cost pressures. At Neoforma, a leading supplier of supply
chain management solutions for the healthcare industry, we meet with
hospital executives every day, and are amazed to hear how consistent the
financial pressures are that face our nation’s hospitals.
Hospital CEOs, COOs and CFOs have financial targets
that are significantly above and beyond their current run rate. We hear
things like: "We need to cut $50 million," and "We somehow need to find
an incremental $60 million in revenue growth and at the same time do
more with less and chop $25 million of operating expense from our
budget."
The numbers are daunting, the urgency clear and the
plea for help humbling. What’s causing it? Several things: declining
volume and revenue with a shift to higher co-pays and deductibles;
malpractice insurance rates and settlements are at record levels;
physicians are competing with doctors by taking their business to
alternate care settings; HIPPAA legislation and readiness is expensive;
pharmaceutical prices and utilization continue to rise; scarce labor in
skilled positions is driving up costs; the steep rise in uncollected
bills from uninsured patients; Americans want the very best care for
themselves and their loved ones...spare no expense. Neoforma believes
the supply chain represents a key area that makes up, on average, 30
percent on a hospital’s operating expenses and one in which these
executives are eager to go after.
IT expenditures will be more and more directed
towards hosted solutions and away from more capital intensive
investments
Hospitals have spent millions, even billions of
dollars on information technology over the past couple of decades with
little to show for it. Costs continue to rise; there is much data but
little information, quality of care has shown little if any improvement,
and there is a pervasive dissatisfaction with status quo amongst the
purveyors of IT within healthcare. They feel they’ve been over-promised
and under-delivered. We believe hospitals today would much rather
acquire hosted solutions. First, it saves them a significant outlay of
capital upon purchase, capital they don’t have in today’s tight
financial environment. Second, hosted solutions, by their very design,
get better every week as the IT solutions company can cost efficiently
send out upgrades with new functionality with minimal effort on their
part or their customers part. Hosted solutions also lower a hospital’s
risk, as they can quickly and easily make a switch if they feel they’ve
purchased the wrong solution.
Supply chain management solutions will continue
to gain favor by hospital executives as a key area of focus for cost
savings
If you’re a hospital executive and you have a choice
to make concerning where you’ll go to save money, chances are you’ll
focus on where the biggest opportunities exist, as well as where you
have the best chance for success. The healthcare supply chain presents
enormous opportunities for hospitals seeking to reduce costs and
increase efficiencies. More than $11 billion was wasted this year on
inefficiencies relating to hospital supply spend. Supply represents
approximately 30 percent of a hospital’s cost structure and is rife with
inefficiencies such as manual processes, lack of information,
proliferation of SKUs, high fragmentation among providers and suppliers,
complex and antiquated pricing schemes attempting to be managed and
controlled by four disparate entities: GPOs, distributors, manufacturers
and hospitals. Only 50 percent of all items are bought on a committed
contract. There is no doubt, or debate, that significant savings are
achievable for a hospital that gets after this opportunity. In fact we
have examples where hospitals have saved 7 percent of their supply chain
costs. Another hospital has saved $2.5 million. While these efforts are
not easy, they are more straightforward than trying to change clinical
pathways or laying off 50 clinicians who were making $50,000 a year (50
x $50,000= $2.5 million) in an already tight labor market, or
negotiating with physicians or payers or insurers. It’s not glamorous,
but the supply chain opportunity is a big one, savings can be realized
quickly, and patient care not only won’t suffer, but can improve with
better information throughout the supply chain.
The demise of the GPOs will have turned out to
be grossly over-hyped, and in fact, expenditures with the GPOs will
continue to outpace overall market growth
Let’s face it, if GPOs went away tomorrow, prices
would go up. There isn’t a participant in the industry who could tell
you otherwise and keep a straight face. While suppliers have a love-hate
relationship with the GPOs (they love them when they have the contract
and hate them when they don’t), GPOs bring value to suppliers as well.
Groups reduce selling costs, drive compliance, and offer clinical
affinity groups which suppliers can plug into, etc.
With all the negative press coming out of the MDMA, a
special interest group of small device manufacturers, one would think
GPOs are really suffering. In fact, just the opposite is true; hospitals
are voting with their feet, and their dollars, and are putting more
volume than ever before through their GPOs of choice. And the reason
they are doing so is they are providing incremental value to these
hospitals.
There is a "natural order" out there...hospitals will
contract on their own where they can negotiate winning contracts; they
will use a GPO, or two, where the GPO can benefit them, and they will
remain flexible to find what’s in their best interest. But GPOs will
also flex, get more efficient and continue to get better. It’s this
competitive dynamic and effort of continuous improvement that convinces
me that not only aren’t GPOs going away, but they will continue to
thrive. Despite the "sour grapes" coming from a handful of small
manufacturers, GPOs and the hospitals that own them will continue to
thrive.
Growing adoption of RFID and wireless technologies
It has often been said that healthcare is a local
business. Not only is that true, but within the walls of a local
hospital, or the walls of the buildings that make up an integrated
health system, care is delivered not only locally, but in a distributed
fashion. In other words, care is being delivered on a real-time basis in
the OR, the clinical lab, the cath lab, in the respiratory department,
and beyond. All day, all night, 24 x 7. Hospitals executives realize
they need technology that follows this care path and thus, it must
operate wirelessly, not tethered to a central system located somewhere
in the basement. For Neoforma, a clinical activity or procedure is what
creates demand for a supply and sets the supply chain in motion. We
believe our Materials Management Solution must therefore be able to be
administered near the supply usage: up on the nursing floors, in the OR,
in the lab, etc. Wherever care is given.
We also believe that the use of RFID tags will
proliferate in the healthcare supply chain as a cost-effective way to
"tag" and identify products and track them as they flow through the
supply chain from the original manufacturer to the hospital, thereby
providing increased inventory management accuracy and reduced total
inventory management costs. By putting these tools in place, we think
hospitals will create actionable information where none existed before.
Ultimately, this will result in better care through a more reliable
supply chain where a needed supply is matched to a patient before the
patient needs it and can be tracked effectively as it flows through the
system to the patient.
The days of making phone calls only from home or from
a pay phone are over. The days of only checking email from home or
office have recently ended as well. So too will come the end of paper
notes passed from the patient care areas to the basement in materials
management where a purchase order gets called in or faxed. Wireless is
here....and it ain’t going away.
HPN
Bob Zollars is chairman and CEO of Neoforma Inc., San
Jose, CA.
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January 2004


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