The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in their weekly report states that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 5,300 to 18,500 new deaths likely reported in the week ending October 23, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 724,000 to 753,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by the date.
The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 1 jurisdiction and decrease in 8 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, but even the ensemble forecasts do not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.