Port Resilience Tested by Trade War and Economic Slowdown

According to a new study published by Fitch Ratings, global port activity is facing challenges from escalating trade tensions and a slowdown in global economic growth. However, the effect on the creditworthiness of the global port sector is expected to be limited, thanks to contractual and financial mechanisms that help cushion the impact on volumes and revenues.

The press release stated, “Port ratings have remained resilient during previous periods of volume declines, with revenues typically outperforming volumes due to contractual revenue buffers, stable revenues and rate flexibility. Nevertheless, a heightened, prolonged trade war could lead to a material erosion in volumes, which could place greater pressure on revenues and credit quality.”

Further, “Tariff pressures on ports are compounded by declining goods demand amid an economic slowdown. Fitch forecasts global growth to slow to 1.9% in 2025, from 2.9% in 2024. This assumes that the U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) on China remains above 100% for some time, before decreasing to 60% in 2026, while the ETR on other trade partners is 15%.”

Most Fitch-rated ports are investment grade, supported by diversification, strong finances, or government backing. U.S. ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach face tariff risks but remain resilient, while Chinese ports benefit from state support. Shifts in trade may boost volumes at other Asian ports, and impacts on Latin American and European ports are expected to be limited.