Study Shows Climate Change Could Create Higher Antimicrobial Resistance Over Time

A new forecasting study shows that long-term effects of climate change could include “higher global antimicrobial resistance (AMR) levels.” CIDRAP has the news.

The researchers projected that “if countries continue to pursue fossil fuel-intensive development strategies that push up global temperatures, global AMR prevalence could rise by more than 2% globally by 2050, with poorer nations bearing more of the burden than wealthier nations.” The model also suggested that “if the low-resource countries where AMR is already a significant problem worked to meet sustainable development goals, they could cut global AMR levels by more than 5% by 2050.”

The researchers analyzed records involving 32 million tested bacterial isolates collected from 101 countries from 1999 through 2022. The datasets specifically focused on six “high priority drug-resistant pathogens.” Data showed “higher average AMR prevalence in regions such as South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. In a multivariable analysis, the researchers found that average AMR prevalence was positively correlated with air pollutant fine particulate matter and surface runoff—environmental factors that have previously been identified as influencing AMR—as well as temperature change.”

Higher AMR prevalence was “positively correlated with higher out-of-pocket healthcare costs and antibiotic consumption (AMC). In contrast, average AMR prevalence was negatively correlated with subsurface runoff, higher government spending on health, and greater immunization coverage.”