Hesitancy around COVID-19 vaccines could lead to thousands of extra deaths over a two-year period, epidemiologists from the Imperial College of London show, reported the college. High numbers of people refusing or delaying a vaccine could increase the mortality rate by up to eight times compared with ideal vaccination uptake, they said.
The COVID-19 response team at the college estimates that this hesitancy would lead to an extra 236 deaths per million population over a two-year period for a vaccine with high efficacy. This latest report evaluates the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the pandemic and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The analysis combines an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys.
The research finds that mortality over a two-year period could be up to eight times higher in countries with high vaccine hesitancy compared to an ideal vaccination uptake if non-pharmaceutical interventions are relaxed. In addition, the authors say that high rates of vaccine hesitancy could prolong the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions.
The team emphasized that addressing vaccine hesitancy with behavioral interventions is an important priority in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.
